Democratic candidate for governor Tom Wolf seems the clear front-runner for Tuesday’s primary, but an expected low voter turnout could shrink his margin of victory significantly.
“I can see him winning by 4 or 5 percent,” said Dr. Thomas Baldino, professor of political science at Wilkes University. “I’d be surprised if he won by 13 percent, or even double digits.
The hype of an increasingly aggressive and negative ad campaign won’t change the fact that voters — particularly Democratic voters — usually don’t show up for midterm primaries or elections, Baldino said.
“It won’t be any historic low, but it’ll be low,” Baldino said. “In the aggregate, a registered Republican is more likely to vote than a registered Democrat.