What is of perhaps more significant is that its outlook is in line with those posted so far from some more conventional neighborhoods of the meteorological community.
AccuWeather went on record two weeks ago as calling for a snowy winter in the Northeast, with above-normal snowfall around here.
You may be reading this while wearing summer-ish shorts and a T-shirt, or standing in comfortable weather in your driveway after getting your paper.
But here’s a news flash — winter’s coming.
Even though it’s only late August, school’s just getting ready to start and winter doesn’t officially start for four months, forecasters are already getting a good picture of what to expect for winter 2014-15.
And the picture has both good news and bad news.
It’s now officially spring, but more snow is on its way to the Philadelphia region.
The National Weather Service says a few inches of snow are expected to fall between Tuesday morning and early Wednesday, with most of the Philadelphia area seeing between 1.5 and 3.5 inches.
It looks like the storm we have been watching for days will take on a similar track as the one two weeks ago, when most of the snow fell across southeast New Jersey and Delaware. This storm should generally follow the same path.
Computer models for the last several days have differed largely on the outcome for this storm. Ranging from the North American model blasting us with heavy snow, the global forecasting model ejecting the storm off the Florida coast and the European and Canadian models painting a swath of heavy snow just east of Philly.
Then a wild swing with the global models put Philly back into the heavy snow as the North American model completely went the other way – with no snow for Philly.
WILKES-BARRE, PA – As the saying goes, March is coming in like a lion.
Three to four inches of snow is expected in the Wyoming Valley Sunday into Monday, according to a spokesman for the National Weather Service. The storm comes on the heels of a week of bone-chilling temperatures.
A major, late-season storm could dump up to a foot of snow on us Sunday and Monday.
The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook that notes the storm likely will produce “a heavy snowfall” from late Sunday through much of Monday.
But National Weather Service forecaster Craig Evanego cautioned that the storm is a difficult one to predict.
March is the most volatile month of the year weatherwise as winter and spring duke it out.
It’s when winter transitions into spring and huge contrasts in air masses make for a nasty March cocktail. A battle zone of air masses results when lingering arctic fronts set up the dividing line between polar air colliding with spring-like milder temps. In this zone, you get massive outbreaks of severe storms and the tornado season launches, starting usually in late March and hits a peak by mid-late April.
But March in Philly has had some record snowstorms, including the infamous blizzard of 1888 when Philadelphia got smacked with 10.5 inches of snow along with winds approaching 80mph along the Jersey Shore.
And of course the very first “storm of the century” March 13-14, 1993, when we got buried with 12 inches of snow and sleet.
Feb. 26 to March 3 should be the most volatile time frame, with the best chance of more snow and temperatures at least 15-20 degrees below normal. Daytime highs in the mid 20s and overnight lows in the coldest of locations near zero. This would be for a 2-3 day time period.
Exactly how cold it will get and whether we will see another major snow storm is still questionable, but bares some watching. You know I will keep you updated.
In the meantime, you have a GREAT WEEKEND to look forward to as Saturday should see temperatures in the low 50s with sunshine.
The nor’easter that crippled the region yesterday dumped more than 20 inches in parts of Chester County, according to newly revised figures – and a bit more could be on the way for the entire Philadelphia region.
The official National Weather Service reading at the Philadelphia International Airport was 11.5 inches of snow. But totals varied with Birdsboro, Berks County, recording 20 inches, and Allentown, Lehigh County, with 18.8 inches – good news for skiers on a long President’s Day weekend. Closer to the city, West Caln, Chester County recorded 18.7 inches.
New Jersey saw higher amounts farther north, with Florence, Burlington County, seeing 12.7 inches and Washington Township, Gloucester County, seeing 12.7 inches. The shore was largely spared snow.
With thousands still without power, President Barack Obama on Thursday declared a state of emergency in Lancaster and six other Pennsylvania counties.
The declaration allows the Federal Emergency Management Agency to bring resources to the clean-up efforts.
While local officials were still unclear about the extent of federal aid on Thursday afternoon, a FEMA spokesman said the first tangible result will likely come to the county in the form of gas-powered generators.
Peter Herrick, of Philadelphia-based FEMA Region III, said federal emergency management officials were talking to their counterparts at the state level to determine what equipment is needed.
So, no, there are no signs of a break in this vicious winter.
However, we will — thank goodness — miss a mega-storm this weekend, which should help in the recovery process of restoring power to many homes still in the dark.
Over the upcoming weekend, a storm system well off the coast, combined with energy racing across the upper Ohio Valley, could produce a period of snow showers from Saturday night into Sunday morning. The region is should expect light accumulation, from a possible coating in most places and up an inch or two. The most likely areas to see accumulation is coastal Cape May County, N.J., and Central and Southern Delaware.
After snow subsides early Sunday, the rest of the day will be windy and cold. Earlier in the weekend, starting Friday, temperatures will be hard pressed to crack the freezing mark.
The heaviest precipitation that will hit Berks County today is over, but the storm has toppled numerous trees in the area, blocking roadways and causing power outages.
Nearly 9,000 customers are without power in the Met-Ed and PPL service areas in Berks.
As of 10 a.m., Met-Ed reported there were 5,500 outages in Reading and eastern and northern Berks, while PPL reported 3,200 customers were without power in Wyomissing, western Berks and the Morgantown area in southern Berks.
PPL reported 60,679 of its customers in a 16-county area of the state were affected by outages, while Met-Ed’s parent company, FirstEnergy, said there were 78,000 Pennsylvania customers affected.
The nine inches of snow that fell across the region Monday was just the first part of a three-part recipe for winter misery that may well last through the weekend.
If forecasters are right, you’ll wake up to three-to-six inches of snow that is forecast to fall overnight.
That forecast also calls for the snow to have been subsequently blended with sleet and topped off with an icing of ice and freezing rain.
Specifically, the area may get a quarter- to half-inch of ice from freezing rain throughout Wednesday morning, likely lasting until early afternoon, according to the National Weather Service forecasts.
That darn groundhog.
Within 24 hours of forecasting six more weeks of winter, large dense snowflakes began falling in Berks County early Monday, and the storm continued to drop about an inch an hour before tapering off to flurries about 2:30 p.m.
Blame Phil if you were stuck in traffic behind one of the numerous crashes that occurred through the day or lost power from outages, but remember he wasn’t the only messenger.
Forecasters at AccuWeather, near State college, predicted this storm would bring wet, heavy snow that would affect the morning commute, and did it ever. By 11 a.m., with temperatures hovering around 32 degrees, at least a half a foot of snow had fallen in Berks County.
Get ready for a week that will bring us snow, sleet, ice and more snow.
After up to 8 inches of snow was predicted to fall Monday, Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring more snow and then sleet and ice.
Then the weekend will bring another storm, during a winter that already has given us well over the usual amount of snow.
Snow has been falling at rates of 1-2 inches per hour, with some places, such as northern Chester County counting 7 inches as of 11 a.m., and Horsham and Worcester in Montgomery County and West Rockhill Township in Bucks County, counting 6 inches.
Some places in Lehigh Valley are reporting 6 inches, as well.
Closer to the City of Philadelphia, Brookhaven in Delaware County, near the airport, was reporting 3.5 inches as of 10:30 a.m.
Just across the river, as of 11:15 a.m., the rain-snow line has halted, and actually in Haddonfield has changed back to some rain and sleet as that line oscillates around 10 miles south and east of the city.
BOMBOGENESIS (a rapidly intensifying storm) will take place Tuesday afternoon off the Virginia coast.
Computer models had an extreme reversal on the intensity and track of this storm over the last 24-36 hours, and that’s why snow amounts were jacked up Monday as computer models came late to the snow party.
Hinting started to take place late Sunday as my forecast called for a significant storm for some with 4+ inches of snow possible across parts of New Jersey. But a big uptick in moisture being fed into the storm combined with a piece of the polar vortex sending another package of severe cold. This time, it gets pulled into the storm’s circulation leading to rapid intensification and high snow ratios.
Normally we receive a 10-1 ratio, with one inch of liquid equaling 10 inches of snow, but in this case we have an overall ratio of 13-1, to as much as 15-1, meaning more snow with less liquid.
PLEASE REMEMBER SNOW RULES IF YOU ARE PARKING ON HIGH STREET IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
Parking areas should be left free of cars along High Street WHEN THE STORM ENDS – we do all we can to clear those areas, quickly and efficiently.
Any questions, feel free to contact Sheila Dugan at 484-948-6061. PLEASE USE THE LOTS AVAILABLE. Thank you in advance!
PS. Don’t forget to warm up this Saturday at The Soup Bowl Fund Raiser – www.ARTFusion19464.0rg
In addition, wind chills dipped below zero.
Most local school districts closed, and the Lancaster County Courthouse was opening 2 hours late.
One institution, Ephrata‘s Green Dragon farmer’s market, announced Thursday it was closed Friday.
Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst, who initially had predicted 2 to 5 inches, upped his forecast to 4 to 7 inches late Thursday. Friday morning, he said most of the county got 6.5 to 7 inches of snow.